What If Mark Selby Didn't Win In 2014?

As we continue this series of hypothetical ‘What Ifs’, one of the scenarios I wanted to think about is what potentially could have happened if Mark Selby didn’t win his maiden World Championship in 2014. While this may seem like it wouldn’t have had a significant impact, I think there are a couple of areas of interest in the realm of what could have been.

Firstly, if Selby didn’t beat Ronnie O’Sullivan that year and everything else that occurred in the years that followed remained the same, then the Crucible Curse would have been broken. Selby’s maiden title would have come in 2016 and his successful defence in 2017 would have broken the elusive Crucible Curse, whereby a player successfully defends their World Championship the year following their maiden title.

But would this have happened if Selby hadn’t won in 2014? His victory in 2014 is arguably his most impressive because of his display of mental toughness as he scrapped with the best. The confidence that anyone would take from a victory like that would be astronomical, so who knows if these further WSCs would be added to his list of accolades if he actually lost that match? Although, I reckon this would be unlikely due to Selby already being a 3-time Masters and UK Champion at the time. And for someone who has a work rate and temperament like Selby, it was only a short matter of time before he reached the summit.

Selby managed to remain atop the rankings from 2012-19. How would a loss in the 2014 world final change this? Chances are that he would have ended the 2013/14 in the No. 2 position, falling behind Neil Robertson; followed by Stuart Bingham overtaking him as he won the WSC in 2015, despite the ranking system changing to a money list from that season. However, as we know, 2016-17 belonged to Selby so he would have claimed the throne back for himself along with the No. 1 position. This doesn’t really mean too much except the nice chain of Selby holding No. 1 at the end of each season from 2012-19 would have been broken and wouldn’t have looked as impressive.

The other key way that I think Selby winning the WSC in 2014 would have impacted the snooker environment was the effect that it had on his opponent, O’Sullivan. Following his defeat to Selby, O’Sullivan hasn’t been able to progress further than the quarter-finals in the World Championship. Since his first win in 2001, he wouldn’t have to wait more than a few years to gain the title again. Now, he is experiencing the longest drought without at least reaching a final, and who knows when he’ll lift the trophy again?

*Edit: This Short was written prior to the World Snooker Championship 2020. Obviously, O’Sullivan has won the WSC, taking his total to six meaning that the possibility of him levelling with Stephen Hendry with regards to World Titles was definitely in the realm of what could have been. But I feel my points do still stand.

I truly believe that Selby dampened O’Sullivan’s streak as he had just made three consecutive finals and won two of them. If O’Sullivan won in 2014, he would be at least a 7-time World Champion, overtaking Steve Davis and tying Hendry. And I say ‘at least’ because I don’t think that his WSC form would have stopped there. The potential to win at least another one or two and even surpass Hendry in the history books could have taken place in the remainder of the decade.

Although, this has been dismissed by Selby who stated that O’Sullivan’s recent streak is down to the level of competition and how good the players are. But he did mention his thoughts on O’Sullivan likely breaking the WSC record if he had won in 2014 and that he has ‘missed the boat’ in his quest to win more world titles. So, in a sense Selby is agreeing regarding the effect of his victory.

Again, this is all conjecture so technically anything is possible in this What If series. But what do you think would have happened if Selby didn’t win the final in 2014? Do you think he still would have been the player he turned into by the end of the decade? And what other What If scenarios do you think would be worth exploring?

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Player Spotlight – Luca Brecel

At the young age of 25, Luca Brecel is still maturing into the sport as he finds himself cast into the spotlight whenever he competes. Prior to his career as it stands, Brecel had a very successful amateur career which has led to many presumptions about his prosperous future in snooker. And with these presumptions come along many comparisons and statements about whether he is on track and achieving what outsiders are expecting of him. Let’s go through Brecel’s accolades and experiences thus far.

Brecel played pool with his father whilst on holiday abroad which sparked his interest in the game, and following their return they would both go to the snooker club to practice. Since going to school in Belgium isn’t compulsory, Brecel was receiving his education at home, which allowed him more practice time on the table. This is when he really started to flourish in the amateur scene with numerous U-16 and U-19 victories from the age of 12.

However, it wasn’t until 2009 where people started to take notice as Brecel won impressively at the U-19 European Championship at the very young age of 14. This was a couple of years before the event changed to U-21 and included previous winners such as Mark Allen, Michael White and future opponent, Ben Woollaston. Ordinarily, this would have resulted in Brecel earning a two year tour card however, due to age restrictions he had to wait until 16 to do so, in the form of a wildcard for the 2011/12 season. He has remained on the tour ever since.

It wasn’t until late 2012 where Brecel would win his first ranking match at the UK Championship. This was following his notable qualifying success at the previous World Championship as Brecel became the youngest player to qualify for the Crucible, beating Stephen Hendry by a couple of months. Although, his time there was short-lived as Brecel struggled to qualify, not only for the Crucible, but many other tournaments for the following seasons.

But all was not lost. Brecel was able to gain a bit of steam as he reached the semi-finals of the Welsh Open in 2015 (the furthest he has made it in a tournament; he had only reached a quarter-final once before this) and the final of the German Masters in 2016, where he lost out to Martin Gould 9-5. He also reached the final of the Shootout that year, living up to his ‘Belgian Bullet’ moniker. This, along with better performances in the following seasons saw Brecel steadily climb the rankings until he finally reached the Top 16 in 2018.

This rise to the Ranking Promised Land was primarily aided by Brecel’s maiden ranking title at the China Championship in 2017 where he performed well against established winner, Shaun Murphy. Following this victory, Brecel has reached a few more semi-finals, as well as qualify for main stage Crucible where he has yet to win a match. The closest Brecel has come to a second round match was in 2017 (click here to read that Instant Classic where he was 7-1 up) and 2019 where he lost 10-9 on both occasions. Although, his remarkable performance and triumph at the recent Champions League may just give Brecel the confidence boost he needs to venture deep at the Crucible.

Known as the Belgian Bullet due to his fast and powerful pots, Brecel has demonstrated his talent on the table. He now finds himself with the task of honing in that talent along with a few technical tweaks, such as his recent shortening of the bridge hand, in order to collect a few more ranking titles. *A successful venture to at least the quarter-finals of the World Championship would benefit Brecel’s current rank tremendously, but would still require some work in the following season to climb back to the Top 16.

So when people criticise Brecel for ‘under-achieving’ at his age, is that a fair statement? Definitely not. Sure, there are some that can win a ranking event or two at a young age but that isn’t the defining part of a successful career. We’re witnessing many players that are peaking at a mature age and Brecel still has plenty of time to really knuckle down and focus on his concentration and confidence. There have been many occasions in matches where Brecel has built a healthy lead but lost focus as he allowed his opponents to claw back. Once Brecel is able to build a mental fortress, who knows what his limits are?

*This Short was written prior to the World Snooker Championship 2020

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Snooker: The Crucible Curse

And so, another season goes by as we fail to see a maiden champion break the ever elusive ‘Crucible Curse’. While it might seem like a phrase that’s been overused and run into the ground, the proof is in the pudding as we all must continue to wait and see if the magical forces that surround this phenomenon ever allow a first-time winner to see the light of day.

For those unaware or new to snooker, the Crucible Curse refers to the occurrence of a first-time World Champion being unable to successfully defend their position in the following year. This dates back to the beginnings of the Crucible in 1977, where only two individuals out of the twenty-one WSC winners were able to make the successive final.

The first of those individuals was the surprise champion of 1986, Joe Johnson, who beat Steve Davis 18-12 to lift the trophy. Unbeknownst to Johnson, who was just hoping to progress past the first round due to a poor season following his WSC win, he became the closest to ever break the Crucible Curse as he reached the final once again where Davis exacted his revenge with an 18-14 victory.

No one would ever come closer than Johnson. Yet. The second player to come close was 1997 champion, Ken Doherty who performed very well to disrupt Stephen Hendry’s string of consecutive world titles in the 1990s. Despite reaching the finals once again with victories over Stephen Lee, Matthew Stevens and Mark Williams, a very talented John Higgins had something to say about the Crucible Curse as he pushed past Doherty by the same score-line he had won with the year prior.

Speaking of Higgins, how did the players that most consider among the all-time greats fare when it came to their attempts at the curse? Higgins and O’Sullivan both reached the semi-finals in their following WSCs but fell short against their budding opponents. O’Sullivan contested an epic against Hendry in 2002, while Higgins lost to Williams in 1999. On the other hand, Williams lost in the deciding frame against Joe Swail in 2001 to also fall victim to the Crucible Curse.

What about Davis? Actually, Davis succumbed to the Crucible Curse in one of the most shocking defeats of the 1980s, as he got hammered by Tony Knowles in the first round by a 10-1 score-line. This unexpected loss came off the back of an 18 month period of dominance, in which Davis had claimed the UK and Masters in that season hence, being denied the full Triple Crown. Davis did however deny three opponents from breaking the Crucible Curse through his 1980s supremacy.

That leaves Hendry – what happened there? Again, Hendry was hot coming off his best ever season in 1990/91 (click here to read about that) where he won five ranking titles that season and it didn’t seem like anything was going to stop him from winning the world title as well. Enter Steve James in the quarter-finals. Hendry was in the lead for most of this match at 11-9, until James reeled off four frames in a row to put a stop in Hendry’s tracks.

Oddly enough, maiden champions often don’t have the best track record when it comes to making it far in the following year. Whether it’s the pressure or the bizarre forces that surround this ‘curse’, it just seems to have its effect on those that come before it. Five of the first-time champions didn’t make it past round 1, while a total of thirteen didn’t make it past the quarter-finals. That means only 28% of first-time champions have made it to the one-table setup, cutting this number by more than half for those that reached the final.

As to whether the Crucible Curse will ever be broken…I honestly think that it will happen one day. I’m just not sure it will be anytime soon. And I think the player that accomplishes it might be on the tour right now, but just hasn’t hit their peak levels just yet. I reckon it’ll be someone that hasn’t reached a Triple Crown final in their careers so far, so we’ll still have some time to wait and see if we can stop mentioning the so-called Crucible Curse.

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Stephen Hendry Post 2000s Career

As Stephen Hendry returns to the green baize next season via an invitational card, I thought it’d be a good idea to look at one of his lesser talked about eras, and that’s his post-2000s career. While it significantly differed from his accolades of the previous decade, it’s still worth taking a look at some of the notables that occurred following his established period of dominance.

One of the first things to look at would be Hendry’s ranking title success following the turn of the decade. He reached twelve ranking finals from 2000, with his last venture to a final occurring in 2006. Of these twelve endeavours, Hendry managed to win four, taking his ranking tally from 32 to the acclaimed 36. This 33% success rate fell drastically from over 70% in the 1990s (32 wins from 45 finals), which highlights just how damaging Hendry was during this decade.

Another factor to consider, which branches off his ranking competition are his Triple Crown voyages. From 2000, Hendry reached two UK finals as well as a Masters and World Championship final. Most will remember his final frame deciding clash against Peter Ebdon in WSC 2002, which Hendry credits as his one of his most crushing defeats. However, Hendry would have another (and his last) Triple Crown contention against Ebdon in the 2006 final, where his opponent once again got the better of him.

Despite these efforts, it wouldn’t be fair to look at his finals alone. It would be more suitable to observe his Triple Crown consistency throughout the 2000s. If we look at his WSC journey post-2000, Hendry’s experience and competitiveness carried him through to numerous quarter-finals, including his year of retirement in 2012. This doesn’t include his two terrific semi-final efforts in 2004 and 2008. The same can be said about his UK and Masters attempts, although there was a failure to reach the latter stages of these events following the 2006/07 season.

One thing that never left Hendry was his ability to score and make century breaks. He was the leading century maker in the 1990s by a substantial margin (418 according to Cuetracker), and was still third on the list during the 2000s (257), only overtaken by O’Sullivan and Higgins. Considering how fewer frames Hendry played in the 2000s, the fact that he maintained a solid 7%+ frame per century rate (slightly improving his 1990s rate) just displays his scoring prowess.

Many have speculated and given their thoughts as to why Hendry didn’t accomplish as much as expected in the post-2000s. Those reasons mentioned aren’t the purpose for writing this, rather than to emphasise just how brilliant he was during the previous decade. So brilliant in fact, that anything less would seem like a failure in most people’s eyes.

O’Sullivan said following his sixth world title that he would perhaps rather have Hendry’s career in being able to dominate over a period. If you asked Hendry, he’d probably say the same. Whatever Hendry’s reasons are for returning to the circuit, he is welcomed by all as we hope to see some big breaks and clearances that make us feel thirty years younger. He only had a few days practice for the World Seniors due to lockdown and still made some significant breaks during the event.

Regardless, the King of the Crucible returns to the table once again. How do you think he will fare among the rest of the crowd?

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